Portfolio Rebalancing Plan: 2026-02-06
1. Executive Summary
- Market Regime: “The Great Rotation”. Capital is rotating OUT of high-flying Software/Semis and INTO “Old Economy” (Materials, Energy, Industrials). Volatility is increasing (“Washout/Choppy”).
- Portfolio Health:
- Cash: 14.0% (Healthy, Dry Powder ready).
- Concentration: Tech/AI exposure is high (~57%). Materials exposure (~8%) is well-positioned but underweighted given the new market trend.
- Risk Flag: Small Cap holdings (RKLB, CRDO, AAOI) are showing significant weakness (-20% to -34%) and need immediate “Kill/Keep” decisions.
2. Market Pulse Check (Anti-Tunnel Vision)
| Source | Key Themes | Contradictions / Convergence |
|---|---|---|
| Local Research (Gooaye) | Bullish on LEO Satellites (PCB supply chain) & Thermal. Cautious on Server ODMs (Wistron). | DIVERGENCE on Space: Local focuses on PCB/Starlink supply chain (Safe Haven), but your holding RKLB (Launch) is crashing due to contract loss. |
| Global Sentiment (Web) | Rotation to Materials/Energy. Tech/Software weakness due to earnings. “Physical Backbone” > “Virtual Software”. | CONVERGENCE on Materials: Web confirms Copper/Lithium trend. Your COPX dip is likely a buying opportunity (China holiday factor). |
3. Deep Dive & Verdicts
A. The “Problem Children” (Down > 10%)
- Credo (CRDO) [-34%]: SELL.
- News: Structural shift from Copper to Optical in AI datacenters threatens core business. Heavy insider selling.
- Verdict: Thesis broken. Don’t bag hold technological obsolescence.
- Rocket Lab (RKLB) [-23%]: REDUCE / SELL.
- News: Congress killed $4B Mars mission. Neutron rocket delayed to mid-2026.
- Verdict: Sentiment is extremely negative. The “Space Safe Haven” thesis applies to Starlink suppliers (PCBs), not RKLB right now. Recover funds.
- Intel (INTC) [Profitable but lagging]: TRIM.
- News: Ohio Fab delayed to 2030. 18A yields improving but still loss-making.
- Verdict: Value Trap risk. Opportunity cost is high compared to shifting to Materials/Energy.
B. The “Winners” & Core
- Google (GOOGL): HOLD. CapEx fears caused a dip, but margins remain robust.
- Copper (COPX): BUY. Recent 6% drop is attributed to Lunar New Year seasonality in China. Structural demand (AI/Power) is intact. Use the dip.
4. Rebalancing Matrix
| Ticker | Action | Weight Impact | Conviction | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRDO | SELL ALL | ~0.8% → 0% | High (Exit) | Thesis Broken: Optical replacing Copper. Stop the bleeding. |
| RKLB | REDUCE | ~0.9% → 0.5% | Medium | Negative News Cycle. Reduce exposure until Neutron visibility improves. |
| INTC | TRIM | ~3.2% → 2.0% | Medium | Foundry delays to 2030. Redeploy capital to sectors with momentum. |
| COPX | BUY | ~2.1% → 4.0% | High | ”Great Rotation” Play. Buy the Lunar New Year dip. |
| XME | BUY | ~0.9% → 2.0% | High | Broad exposure to Metals/Mining trend. |
| Cash | DEPLOY | 14% → ~12% | - | Deploying small portion of cash into Materials weakness. |
5. Execution Steps
- Stop Loss: Enter Market Sell orders for CRDO and half of RKLB.
- Trim: Sell 10 shares of INTC.
- Rotation Buy:
- Add COPX (Target +$700 allocation).
- Add XME (Target +$400 allocation).
- Watch: Monitor AAOI and MRAM next. If they break support, cut them too.