LITE 研究筆記 & Valuation
Valuation verdict
- Current price: $895.11 (as of 2026-04-21, source: Yahoo Finance)
- Verdict: 偏貴 (Expensive) - 基於 2026 預估 EPS $7.79 計算，Forward P/E 高達 114x，已完全Price in 矽光子(Silicon Photonics)與AI通訊基建爆發的極致預期。
Scenario table (Bear/Base/Bull)
- Bear: EPS=6.50, P/E=50x → FV=$325
- Base: EPS=7.79, P/E=70x → FV=$545.3
- Bull: EPS=9.50, P/E=85x → FV=$807.5
(註：股價已越過 Bull 情境的合理價，估值面昂貴)
Buy zone (with margin of safety)
- Buy zone: $381 – $463
- Neutral zone: $463 – $807.5
- Expensive zone: ≥ $807.5
Take profit plan
- TP1: $950 (靠近千元整數關卡前，提早 sell ~30-50%)
- TP2: trailing stop (sell remainder with trailing -10%~-15%，或有效跌破 10 日均線)
Kill criteria (3)
- 電信端 (Telecom) 需求持續疲軟拖累整體獲利，或數據中心 (Datacom) 成長放緩。
- 矽光子產品技術或量產進度落後競爭對手。
- 競爭對手發布更低成本且高效能的替代方案，導致毛利率萎縮。