NBIS Valuation Report (Nebius Group N.V.)
- Report Date: 2026-04-24
- Analyst: Senior Investment Analyst (Antigravity)
- Sector: Communication Services / AI Infrastructure
Valuation verdict
- Current price: $157.08 (vs MA200: +41%; as of 2026-04-24, source: Yahoo Finance)
- % to Buy Zone: -1.2%（負數 = 已在買點）
- R/R: 3.3x (Upside: +44.6% to Base FV | Downside: -13.4% to Bear FV)
- PEG (5yr): 0.63x → [便宜]
- Verdict: 便宜 (Undervalued) - 市場目前仍以 TTM P/E (1400x+) 或是虧損預期來看待，但若以 2027 年 $10B 的預估營收（YoY ~200%）計算，P/S 僅約 3.4x，對於 AI 基礎設施龍頭而言顯著低估。
Scenario table (Bear/Base/Bull)
- Bear: 2027 Revenue=$8B, P/S=3x → FV=$110 (AI 需求疲軟，擴張進度受阻)
- Base: 2027 Revenue=$10B, P/S=5x → FV=$227 (正常執行擴張，維持高成長)
- Bull: 2027 Revenue=$12B, P/S=8x → FV=$437 (超預期增長，規模效應顯現並轉盈)
註：以 Shares Outstanding 219.5M 計算 Revenue per share。
Buy zone (with margin of safety)
- Buy zone: $110 – $159 (Margin of Safety 30% from Base)
- Neutral zone: $159 – $227
- Expensive zone: ≥ $270 (超越 Base FV 並接近 Bull 情境)
Take profit plan
- TP1: $227 (Base FV 達成，建議減碼 30-50%)
- TP2: $270+ (進入超漲區，配合移動停利 trailing -15%)
Kill criteria (3)
- 營收增長失速：2027 年營收目標達成率低於 70%（即營收低於 $7B），顯示 GPU 租賃或雲端服務競爭力下滑。
- 大客戶流失：Meta 或 Microsoft 等核心客戶大幅減少訂單或轉向自行開發基礎設施。
- 利潤率持續惡化：在營收擴張的同時，毛利率未能守住 60% 或營業虧損持續擴大（無規模效應）。
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on current market data and analyst projections. AI infrastructure stocks carry high volatility and execution risk.